Finding Success Betting NASCAR

While the 2022 NASCAR season may be coming to an end, there are still a few crucial races left and money to be made.  Let’s take a look at ways to turn a profit when wagering on NASCAR races. 

Analyzing a NASCAR race and picking winners is somewhat similar to checking out nfl expert picks. Strengths and weaknesses of all drivers, closing line value, and previous track history must all be considered before hitting submit and placing your wager.

Below are some factors to consider and take into account when wagering on America’s most popular motorsport and a sport that, thanks to international television rights, and sponsorship deals involving international companies, is gaining traction and momentum overseas.

Where They’re Running

There are a number of different track surfaces, configurations, and distances at play.  Track surfaces can be either asphalt or concrete.  Track distances vary from half-mile short tracks to 1.5-mile “cookie cutter” layouts to 2-plus mile super speedways.  Certain drivers excel at different distances for a number of reasons.  First, the smaller the track, the more a driver needs to brake, and subsequently, there’s more tire wear necessitating more pit stops putting an emphasis on pit crews and crew chiefs to decide when to stop.  Plus, some drivers are better at saving tires than others. 

In terms of track distance, the patience and experience of drivers come into play more at longer tracks since there’s more of a chance for wrecks, and it’s critical to “wait your turn” and be in the right place at the right time.  Also, certain manufacturers (NASCAR has 3-Chevrolet, Ford, and Toyota) have better packages and setups for different size tracks.

Now, just when we covered the track distances, there’s another setup completely: the road course.  This is a course full of twists, turns, hills, and chicanes.  This type of racing most closely resembles F1. Certain drivers who are more adept at thinking their way around the track excel in these spots almost in the same way someone studying nfl predictions needs to discern what they’re looking at carefully.

When To Bet

As is the case in many sports, there are opening lines and then closing lines.  When checking out nfl picks, gamblers must decide when to place their bet, as the market can move, and odds can fluctuate.  Factors such as weather and injuries can impact line movement significantly.

There’s one enormous difference with NASCAR in that prior to the race, the drivers and cars perform on the track they’ll be racing at in qualifying.  This would be akin to fans and bettors alike being able to watch a team’s final workout prior to a game.

In NASCAR, some bettors split their bankroll down the middle, using 50% of it before practice and qualifying and then allowing practice and qualifying results to lead them into making the final 50% of their bets.  Keep in mind a race is hundreds of miles long, and qualifying is only 2 laps, with the quickest being taken.  While practice is certainly more of sample size (drivers get 20-30 minutes on track), it certainly doesn’t tell the whole story.

Picking Your Spots

Finally, in recent years the NASCAR betting menu has expanded to give bettors more options with their wagering dollar.  In addition to outrights (winners), most places offer top 3, 5, and 10 bets.  Additionally, there are usually at least 4 driver matchups (interestingly enough, these are chosen by NASCAR themselves and then relayed to books) as well as a number of prop bets.

Keep in mind that due to a disparity in equipment, NASCAR races, with few exceptions, seldom produce crazy longshot (50/1 or more) victors.  However, especially at superspeedways, longshot drivers certainly have been able to crack the top 5 and 10.  Although their value isn’t nearly as great as it is on the winning side, there is value there. 

Generally, in any race, there are between 3-5 drivers priced at 10/1 and under.  What we’ve found as a sweet spot is the next tier of drivers, those priced anywhere from 11/1 to 20/1.  Given the fact that it’s a car race with too many variables to name, it’s never a great idea to pin all of your hopes (and bankroll) on a short-priced favorite.

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